India’s Coking Coal Import Dependency: West Asia Freight Shock and the DRI-EAF Structural Hedge | Reclimatize.in

India imports approximately 80 million tonnes of coking coal per year — 100% of its metallurgical coal requirement — from Australia, the USA, Canada, and Mozambique. The West Asia War added 30–40% freight premium to delivered coking coal costs as shipping rerouted from Suez/Red Sea to the Cape of Good Hope. At Rs 20,000/t delivered coking coal, this feedstock alone represents approximately Rs 56,000 per tonne of BF-BOF steel produced. DRI-EAF with natural gas eliminates this entirely — replacing coking coal with a fuel that has alternatives, domestic production potential, and no Suez exposure.

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Beyond Urea: India’s DAP and MOP Crisis, the Subsidy Architecture, and What Decarbonisation Means for Non-Urea Fertilisers | Reclimatize.in

India imports 100% of its muriate of potash (MOP) and approximately 70–80% of its diammonium phosphate (DAP). With the West Asia War driving DAP to $750–770/t and MOP to $350–400/t, India’s non-urea fertiliser subsidy bill has reached fiscal crisis levels. Unlike urea, where green ammonia offers a domestic production alternative, DAP and MOP’s import dependency is structural. This article maps the crisis, the CBAM exposure for DAP, and what a decarbonised phosphatic fertiliser supply chain would look like.

Beyond Urea: India’s DAP and MOP Crisis, the Subsidy Architecture, and What Decarbonisation Means for Non-Urea Fertilisers | Reclimatize.in Read More »

India’s Urea Import Crisis and the Temporary Green Ammonia Break-Even | Reclimatize.in

India imports approximately 30% of its urea needs, around 8–9 million tonnes annually. With international urea at $700/t during the West Asia War shock, the government’s subsidy bill per imported tonne has exceeded Rs 75,000. At this price level, green urea produced from domestic green hydrogen at $4/kg is cost-competitive with subsidised conventional urea on a total delivered basis, years ahead of where analysts placed the break-even in 2023. This article maps the arithmetic, the policy implications, and what it means for the HPO mandate.

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The Hormuz Crisis and India’s Decarbonisation Calculus: Intelligence Briefing | Reclimatize.in

Brent crude has crossed $105/barrel, urea import tenders have settled at $935–959/t — nearly double pre-war levels — and IRGC gunboats seized two container ships on April 22. This is the updated April 24, 2026 analysis of what the Hormuz blockade is doing to India’s five hard-to-abate sectors and what it means for the economics of decarbonisation.

The Hormuz Crisis and India’s Decarbonisation Calculus: Intelligence Briefing | Reclimatize.in Read More »

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