India’s offshore wind framework, a 4× REC multiplier, ISTS waiver, and an active SECI auction pipeline offers coastal aluminium smelters something onshore solar cannot: a 24-hour baseload-like generation profile, no land acquisition constraint, and direct port-proximate supply. Offshore wind was designed in 2018 as a futuristic incentive. By 2030, it may be the decisive factor in whether India’s aluminium sector can decarbonise its power supply ahead of CBAM’s full phase-in. The economics are not yet closed but the gap is narrowing.