India’s blast furnace fleet operates at an average GEI of 2.36 tCO₂/tcs — 0.09 tonnes above the CCTS Year 1 target of approximately 2.27 tCO₂/tcs for the most efficient operators and considerably more for older plants. A 3 Mtpa BF-BOF plant at the India average that does nothing faces a CCTS purchase cost of approximately Rs 21.6 crore per year in Phase 1, rising sharply as Phase 2 targets tighten by 2 to 8% annually. A BAT upgrade package (PCI, CDQ, TRT, reline with modern features) costs approximately Rs 900 to Rs 1,100 crore for a 3 Mtpa plant and can shift the same plant from CCTS buyer to CCC seller — a swing of Rs 43 to Rs 65 crore per year. EAF replacement at Rs 3,500 to Rs 5,200 crore per Mtpa eliminates BF-BOF GEI risk entirely but requires Rs 10,500 to Rs 15,600 crore capex for 3 Mtpa and depends on scrap availability. This article builds the three-way financial decision model — upgrade, operate and buy CCCs, or retire and convert — with the actual rupee numbers that a blast furnace plant CFO needs before the Phase 2 target notification arrives.