Green ammonia carries zero CBAM liability on EU exports. Grey ammonia produced from LNG now faces €140–165/tonne in CBAM certificates at the EU border. With LNG at $24–28/MMBtu, grey ammonia production costs have risen sharply enough to compress the price gap with green. Three forces have converged simultaneously in 2025–26: CBAM activation, LNG price escalation from the West Asia conflict, and falling electrolyser costs. The crossover point for green ammonia delivered to Europe is materially closer than 18 months ago.