India plans to nearly triple its aluminium production capacity from approximately 3.8 MMT today to 10 MMT by 2030, driven by Vedanta’s expansion at Jharsuguda, Hindalco’s Aditya and Mahan additions, and NALCO’s 5th smelter plans. Each expansion tonne added on coal captive power carries approximately €1,100–1,400 in CBAM liability per tonne of EU-exported aluminium. Whether India’s aluminium ambition succeeds in EU markets depends entirely on whether the capacity comes online with or without renewable electricity.