India’s urea subsidy for FY2025-26 is budgeted at Rs 1.19 lakh crore — approximately Rs 35,000 to Rs 40,000 per tonne of domestic urea produced, against a farmer selling price of Rs 5,378 per tonne. The West Asia conflict has driven international urea prices to approximately $700 per tonne (up $200–250 from pre-conflict levels), and the Gulf region supplies 20 to 30% of India’s urea imports and 50% of its LNG used in fertiliser production. At $700/t international urea, India is paying approximately Rs 55,000 per tonne in subsidy on imported urea. The marginal additional cost of green urea over conventional at current green hydrogen costs of $4 to $6 per kg is approximately Rs 12,600 to Rs 33,600 per tonne — already below what India pays to subsidise imported urea during a geopolitical shock. This article maps what India’s fertiliser subsidy actually costs per tonne of CO₂ avoided, what the break-even green H₂ price looks like, and how the subsidy regime functions simultaneously as India’s largest decarbonisation barrier and its most powerful potential financing instrument.